Maritime research and research provider Drewry recently said while it expects LNG shipping rates to improve in 2026, rising geopolitical tensions in the West have heightened uncertainty and could undermine expectations for this year:
Drewry expects LNG shipping rates to improve in 2026, driven by demand acceleration and LNG supply expansion. However, a significant rebound is still unlikely, as fleet expansion continues to outpace liquefaction build-up. This is highlighted in the 2026 schedule: over 65% of annual deliveries are scheduled for 1H26, while 60% of new supply is expected in 2H26. Although 2026 appears to mark the start of recovery, rising geopolitical tensions in the West have heightened uncertainty and could undermine expectations for this year.
Rates to revive, but rather cautiously, as geopolitical factors and Asian demand could be the wildcards
We expect LNG shipping rates to recover this year from the multi-year lows recorded in 2025 (with TFDE rates averaged $25,000pd in 2025, down 37% YoY, and XDF/MEGI rates averaged $40,500pd, down 25% YoY). Meanwhile, the chances for a strong rebound remain slim, as 100+ LNGCs are scheduled for delivery in 2026, following 76 deliveries in 2025, signalling persistent oversupply.
Although the fleet expansion will continue to prevent any major correction in rates, some positives will serve as catalysts in pivoting rates toward a road of recovery.
Figure 1: 2025 vs 2026
LNG trade: Demand will rise, but supply expansion will outpace the demand growth
- Supply growth: About 43 mtpa of new liquefaction capacity is expected to be added in 2026, with some mega projects, including Qatar’s North Field Expansion (16.5 mtpa), Golden Pass T1 (6 mtpa), Corpus Christi Phase-3 and Block2-7 (8.6 mtpa), hitting the market. However, 60% of the upcoming supply is expected to become available in 2H26. Global LNG supply will improve on the back of new production additions (40 mtpa) from 2025, which will ramp up their export intensity.
- Trade recalibration: The demand outlook is bright for Europe, with robust imports expected this year as the continent is likely to end the 2025-26 winter with less than 30% of storage, supporting demand. However, Europe’s quest to implement further structural changes in its energy sourcing (backed by new supply deals and regasification expansion) will be the main driver of imports in 2026.
- Asian demand is set to rise, along with China’s improved demand: Asian demand is anticipated to improve, supported by new supply volumes, higher gas demand, and lower LNG prices. Meanwhile, China’s imports are likely to revive, not due to lower pipeline supply or reduced domestic supply, but to the maxing out of key supply sources that capped China’s LNG demand in 2025. With domestic production already meeting targets for 2025-26 and pipeline supply via PoS 1 operating at full capacity, we expect China’s growing demand to be met through spot buying (which remained subdued in 2025), while new contractual supply is set to commence in 2026.
Note: The full article by Drewry can be found here.
Photo credit: Drewry
Published: 26 January, 2026
